Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.312088 34.902935 37.735176 41.086415 44.977295 49.395413 54.855310
2025-07-13 29.414266 33.044422 37.300865 42.759645 49.731510 58.578508 71.094828
2025-07-20 26.704090 30.677338 35.530414 42.069778 50.957173 63.147384 82.280395
2025-07-27 25.822902 30.306075 36.004563 44.077463 55.797959 73.351997 104.667511
2025-08-03 24.716644 29.477228 35.715143 44.908848 59.004688 81.810372 127.837086
2025-08-10 23.577949 28.472092 35.040254 45.035289 61.076901 88.864181 152.051633
2025-08-17 22.223287 27.057905 33.650337 43.902698 60.891899 91.823487 169.104982
2025-08-24 21.034069 25.783384 32.345250 42.737746 60.437487 94.117439 186.120931
2025-08-31 20.763726 25.753916 32.810322 44.358029 65.046700 107.927898 249.767993
2025-09-07 19.835672 24.734116 31.734255 43.364971 64.710654 110.879873 280.742885
2025-09-14 19.038363 23.857772 30.813249 42.536684 64.557054 114.241165 319.189818
2025-09-21 18.086418 22.714414 29.422865 40.802500 62.401954 112.096248 328.944719
2025-09-28 17.090378 21.574731 28.142718 39.456008 61.481455 114.672335 384.538137
2025-10-05 16.807879 21.477173 28.486032 41.013450 66.995195 138.357862 740.042005
2025-10-12 16.094556 20.687484 27.665325 40.370582 67.600304 147.955891 1156.233433
2025-10-19 15.944445 20.730367 28.174786 42.240171 74.502447 186.384220 10486.387126
2025-10-26 15.599528 20.448071 28.119007 43.013122 79.010103 222.393560 NaN
2025-11-02 15.171624 20.008999 27.760868 43.130612 81.851757 255.901567 NaN
2025-11-09 14.588079 19.294574 26.882340 42.077597 81.141451 268.147094 NaN
2025-11-16 14.042567 18.616796 26.028040 40.993081 80.124514 278.094610 NaN
2025-11-23 13.934826 18.630832 26.377281 42.501098 87.457155 374.130542 NaN
2025-11-30 13.476701 18.057548 25.649222 41.577177 86.763864 395.779149 NaN
2025-12-07 13.069294 17.551247 25.015036 40.805755 86.434553 423.898486 NaN